#39 - 3 Reasons I Do Not Follow the FIRE Movement
Greetings!
On this Monday’s episode of my new podcast, Your Money Guide on the Side,
I break down the asymmetry of opportunity—why one big win can outweigh dozens of small failures, and how our fear of loss keeps us from seeing the upside that could change everything.
From Disney’s acquisition of Pixar to Jeff Bezos’ “regret minimization framework,” we will unpack the psychology of loss aversion, and explain why Monte Carlo simulations, the Kelly Criterion, and even barbell investing can help you make better decisions in life and money.
You’ll also learn:
How only 4% of public companies have driven all net market gains
Why we overweight risk and underweight opportunity
What venture capital teaches us about failure and power laws
Why the S&P 500 has never lost money over any rolling 20-year period (Fama/French)
And the exact 3-question framework the wealthy use to evaluate high-stakes decisions
So whether you’re building a business, investing for your future, or just trying to get out of your own way, this episode will help you rewire your decision-making process and start playing for more upside. Tune in on Apple or Spotify.
And Now for the Main Event!
🚨 3 Reasons I Don’t Follow the FIRE Movement (And What I Do Instead)
The FIRE movement—Financial Independence, Retire Early—has exploded in popularity. I get the appeal: save aggressively, retire young, live free.
The only problem? I don’t buy it.
1. What Are You Running From?
The problem:
FIRE is often about escaping—leaving work, leaving stress, leaving obligation.
But rarely do I hear FIRE folks talk about what they’re actually building toward. Is it just time to chill in a van for the next 40 years?
The truth:
Life isn’t about avoiding work—it’s about solving meaningful problems with thoughtful people. That’s how fulfillment and wealth tend to show up in the first place.
Instead of retiring at 35 to do nothing…
→ Reframe retirement as optionality—the ability to work when, where, and how you want. You don’t need to “retire early” to live freely. You need margin, autonomy, and a life with purpose. And you can find that from many employers these days.
2. The Math Doesn’t Work for Most People
The problem:
FIRE requires saving 50–70% of your income, usually post-tax.
Unless you’re making well into the six figures, this is simply out of reach.
The data:
The average U.S. savings rate in 2023 was just 3.8% (St. Louis Fed).
Meanwhile, many FIRE followers assume 7–10% annual investment returns and tax-efficient cash flow to last 40+ years. That’s a tall order, especially if these people have not been properly taught how to allocate funds to smooth volatility and produce lasting cash flow.
Better strategy:
→ Build a flexible income plan that grows with you—not a rigid blueprint that assumes zero surprises.
Use tax-smart tools (Roth IRAs, brokerage buckets)
Plan for partial work, evolving expenses, and market reality
3. It Underestimates Market Risk
The problem:
FIRE followers often lack deep investing experience—and retire right before they’ve ever felt real fear in a bear market.
Example:
If you retired in 2000, your first three years looked like this:
📉 -10%, 📉 -13%, 📉 -23%
And if you were drawing down 4% on top of that, that’s about a 50% drawdown during your first three years of retirement alone! Sequence of returns matters. That 4% withdrawal rate? It becomes a “real” 2% real fast.
What’s missing:
Understanding asset allocation for tax-efficient income
Knowing how to rebalance through volatility
A plan for staying invested when markets drop and fear sets in
A plan for what to do if your portfolio drops 50% in three years
Better strategy:
→ Don’t assume investing is easy just because the last 10 years were good.
→ Focus on education + flexibility + risk awareness—especially if you plan to live off your assets for 40+ years.
💡 Bottom Line:
I’m not anti-FIRE. I’m anti-la-la land dream like scenarios in which you have a portfolio that stands the test of time with no additional income and no prior investing experience.
If you want financial independence, build a strategy that values long-term investing discipline, income flexibility, and a life that’s worth living—not just escaping.
You don’t have to retire early to win. You just have to plan smart enough that work becomes a choice, not a necessity.
My new number one value of all time? Autonomy of work selection. You give me that, I’m good for life.
Have a great week,
Tyler
